Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Estimating Your Real Workload Before It Lands

Updated September 2026: in February 2020 my manager told me a new request would need heavy effort for two weeks. I called the delivery lead, who said the work was small, and then old work from a difficult team resurfaced anyway. I have rewritten it into advice on estimating your real workload before it lands.

My manager described the new request as two weeks of heavy work. Based on past experience, I suspected he did not know the details, so the next working day I called the delivery person directly. He said the work was modest and needed limited support from me. I was pleased, until an old request with a difficult delivery and account team came back and filled the gap.

Why are workload estimates often wrong?

Because they are passed along second-hand. A manager hears about a request from an account team, adds a margin, and relays it. The person closest to the work, often the delivery lead, has a much better idea of what is actually needed. Estimates also ignore work that has not arrived yet, like old requests coming back.

How do you get a more accurate picture?

  • Talk to the delivery lead early, as I did, and ask what they need from you specifically.
  • Ask for the deliverables list, not a description of effort.
  • Check for dependencies: client inputs, other teams and review cycles that set the real pace.
  • Write your own estimate and share it with your manager.

How do you account for old work returning?

Keep a short list of recently closed requests that could reopen, with the people involved. When you are asked for your availability, mention them: "I have the new request at about 30 percent, and the old one may come back after the client review." Forecasting the return of old work is easier than absorbing it by surprise.

Should you enjoy a light period?

Yes, but use part of it well. Tell your manager what your real load is, so they can plan, and put some of the free time into reusable material or learning. Keeping quiet about spare capacity rarely lasts, and it can look worse later than having said so.

What should you tell your manager?

Your independent estimate, briefly and without implying they got it wrong: "I spoke to the delivery lead; it looks like a few days rather than two weeks. I can take on something else alongside it." Managers generally appreciate better information, and it builds trust in your estimates for next time.

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